Would Israel attack Iran – and what would the risks be in the Middle East and beyond?

Iran is being widely accused of helping orchestrate Hamas’s attack on Israel.

Although Iran has denied direct involvement, the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said it “kisses the hands of those who planned the attack on the Zionist regime”.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) has long supported Hamas with both financial and military assistance.

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But with neighbouring Arab countries beginning to recognise Israel, Iran could step up attacks, which could cause “chaos” for the wider region and relations with the West.

Here Sky News looks at the shadow war between the two sides – and whether it risks becoming a direct conflict.

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Before the Iranian revolution of 1979, Israel and Iran were allies.

But under the new Islamic regime, Tehran took a heavy anti-Israeli stance, instead supporting groups like Hezbollah and Hamas in trying to abolish it.

As Iran’s nuclear capabilities have increased over the years, Israel has come to view it as an existential threat.

In response, Israel has allegedly been behind the assassination of a number of Iranian nuclear scientists.

And more recently in April 2021, it was thought to have been responsible for an explosion at a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz.

Meanwhile following Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, Tehran is no longer restricting uranium enrichment and has also moved to rebuild the facility in Natanz.

This has further heightened tensions with Israel.

Geopolitically, Iran also feels under threat having normalised relations with its long-term rivals Saudi Arabia in March – only for Saudi leaders to agree to peace talks with Israel in recent months.

Would Israel directly attack Iran?

Although this time Iran may have used Hamas to attack Israel from Gaza, Hezbollah is who could draw the two into direct conflict, according to military analyst Professor Michael Clarke.

“Hezbollah is effectively an armed wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” he tells Sky News.

“So if it gets pulled into the current conflict from over the border in Lebanon, Israel could then say ‘well Iran has been behind the whole thing, so we’re going to attack them’.”

Hezbollah is also much more of a conventional armed force than Hamas, he adds, which makes it a “much bigger challenge for Israel in the longer term”.

An Israeli attack on Iran could take two forms, Professor Clarke says.

Following the incident at Natanz in 2021, Israel could cause further damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

But it would more likely attack IRG bases across the region in countries like Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, he says.

This could then see Hezbollah fire rockets across the border from Lebanon – or stage a ground offensive.

“They could launch an invasion and try to seize northern Israel. They wouldn’t hold it for very long, but with lots of holy sites located there, it would cause chaos,” Professor Clarke says.

Despite nuclear weapons forming a key part of the tensions, Israel wouldn’t use them against Iran because of their close proximity to one another – and how it would compromise relations with the West, he adds.

What would it mean for the Middle East and beyond?

Iran’s alleged backing of the Hamas incursion is highly strategic.

With Saudi Arabia on the verge of recognising Israel and the 2020 Abraham Accords normalising relations between Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco and Sudan, Iran felt the “balance of diplomacy in the Middle East turning against them”, Professor Clarke says.

“Iran gets its influence across the region from being anti-Israel,” he adds – but with so many Arab states easing relations with Mr Netanyahu’s administration, Iran’s influence is waning.

Dr Ali Bilgic, a reader in international relations and security at Loughborough University, says that using Hamas to attack Israel is a way of regaining that influence.

“It would give Iran the means of asserting itself as leaders in the Muslim world – and defenders of Palestinian rights against the Israeli regime,” he tells Sky News. “So that conflict would work very well for Iran.”

But should tensions escalate and Hezbollah draw Israel into a direct attack, Western allies would be obliged – as they already have against Hamas – to enter the conflict too.

“If the Middle East falls into chaos, it will turn it into the West vs Iran, which the US would find themselves leading,” Professor Clarke warns.

And this would have grave consequences for wider geopolitics – as the US and other countries would have to divert military and financial resources away from Ukraine.

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