Where do we go from here? Here are four possible scenarios for how the House speaker mess works itself out.

Oct 19, 2023

House Republicans seem as paralyzed as ever on their quest for a new speaker — but here are four possible endgames of the current mess, in order of their likelihood (from most to least):

1. The great unknown: At this point, it seems unlikely House Republicans are able to pass a resolution empowering Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) with new powers (more on that below), even as the speaker impasse seems intractable. “I worry that it might actually exacerbate divides within the conference,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) said.

That appears to be the sense of many in the GOP conference, who acknowledge constitutional concerns about the idea but also the lack of good options before them at this point. This outcome would leave the House in a static situation similar to its existing morass.

2. A third vote, then Jordan drops out: The original plan was for a third vote on Rep. Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) nomination for speaker. But that didn’t happen on Thursday. It’s possible Jordan could keep up efforts to claw back the 22 members who opposed him on Wednesday and force another vote, dropping out if the third time isn’t the charm.

3. Empowering McHenry: There’d been chatter among Republicans about working with Democrats to offer more powers to McHenry amid the ongoing impasse, but Republicans seemed to pull the plug on that approach Thursday. “I don’t think that there was a lot of support for that at this moment,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said. However, many things that seem dead on Capitol Hill often come back to life, so keep an eye out for a revival of this approach, especially if the deadlock persists.

4. Jordan wins: This feels the least likely at this point. He’s got close to two dozen opponents, and many predict he’ll lose more on any future ballot. “I just think there’s a collective opinion that Mr. Jordan — while perfectly suited for Judiciary and Oversight positions that he’s held — does not possess the skill sets that are going to be needed to be an effective speaker,” said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), a Jordan opponent, on Wednesday.

Democrats are decidedly in wait-and-see mode, allowing Republicans to figure out their next steps before wading into the controversy.

It’s been 16 days and counting since the House has had an elected speaker.

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