What next for the deadlocked US House Speaker race?

Despite winning a majority in the House of Representatives in last year’s midterm elections, the Republican Party has found itself so far unable to elect a speaker.

Riven by internecine warfare between Trump supporters and more establishment members, there have so far been six rounds of votes that have all seen the Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, fail to get the required 218 votes.

The election of the speaker is normally a formality, with leader of the largest party in the House normally a shoo-in for the job, however the splits in the party have led to the first defeat of a nominee in a century.

Here are the possible outcomes to break the historic stalemate on Capitol Hill.

1. Kevin McCarthy wins

There remains the possibility that Kevin McCarthy could finally win-round the dissenting Republicans and get his bid across the line.

The California congressman insists he will persist until he gets enough votes, telling reporters on Wednesday: “We stay until we win”.

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But given that there are only 222 Republicans in the chamber following a worse than expected performance in November’s midterms, and 20 of them are currently refusing to back McCarthy, he finds himself in an uphill battle for the gavel.

2. An alternative candidate is found

There are several alternative candidates who might be able to win over enough of the Trump supporting hardliners to take the post ahead of Mr McCarthy.

Steve Scalise

Republican whip Steve Scalise, currently Mr McCarthy’s number 2 in the House, has been discussed as a potential alternative. The Louisiana congressman is entering his eighth term in the house and is widely respected after surviving being shot by a left-wing extremist during a practice for the annual congressional baseball game in 2017.

In an internal Republican Party poll in November, he was elected unopposed to the position of majority leader, the second highest rank in the House after the Speaker. However, he has so far remained resolute in his support for Mr McCarthy and urged colleagues to unite and support him, meaning rebels may be unlikely to accept him as an alternative.

Elise Stefanik

The third ranking Republican in the House is New York representative Elise Stefanik. Having started out as a centrist candidate following her election in 2014, she has drifted further to the right in recent years and been a vocal supporter of Donald Trump.

Last year, she was elected to replace Liz Cheney as the chair of the House Republican Conference after the former vice president’s daughter was ousted over her criticism of President Trump.

This could make her an attractive proposition for the Trumpian rebels. However, some hard-line dissenters, such as Montana congressman Matt Rosendale, have suggested that no one involved in House Republican leadership for the past decade would be acceptable.

Byron Donalds

The 20 Republican rebels all voted for second term Florida congressman Byron Donalds on Wednesday, making him a potential but unlikely candidate for the roll.

Were he to win, he would be the first black American to lead the lower house.

However, Mr Donalds has so far voted for Mr McCarthy in two of the six ballots and his relative inexperience makes it improbable the 44-year-old will take the gavel.

Jim Jordan

Ohio Representative Jim Jordan has also at one point received the support of all the rebels in one of the six ballots so far held for the roll.

However, he has himself said there is virtually no chance of him becoming Speaker, telling reporters after the third round of voting “I’m being clear, I want to chair the Judiciary Committee. I like this ability to cross-examine witnesses and get the truth for the country.”

He then went on to urge the rebels to vote for Mr McCarthy.

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Hakeem Jeffries

So far, the candidate to receive the greatest number of votes, though not the required 218 to win, has been the Democratic nominee Hakeem Jeffries.

The New York congressman has received 212 in all the rounds of ballots so far held with the entire Democratic Party uniting behind him. However, six Republicans are unlikely to cross the aisle to vote for him, making his election virtually impossible.

3. Wild card

Though the Speaker has always been a member of the House, they do not actually have to be an elected member of the chamber according to the constitution. This theoretically means the Republican rebels could nominate Donald Trump for the post as some democrats did with Joe Biden in 2019. However, this too remains highly unlikely.

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