Allies of Rishi Sunak say they believe the Tories are likely to lose both by-elections in two weeks time, as they continue to face down plotters trying to bring down the prime minister.

Defeat in both by-elections on Thursday 15 February is likely to unnerve Tory MPs and restore momentum to Tory plotters trying to unseat the prime minister.

The plotters have pinpointed this moment as a key juncture in their calendar.

Click to subscribe to Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts

The Tories are trying to hold on to a 18,450 majority in Wellingborough in the East Midlands and Kingswood in Bristol, with an 11,220 majority after the departures of Peter Bone and Chris Skidmore respectively.

Labour believes they have more chance in Kingswood than Wellingborough, given the relative scale of the majorities.

However, the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast reveals senior Tories are now telling people they have not been able to plough huge resources into either seat since both are abolished in the boundary changes ahead of the next election. This means they are likely to lose both, given the current state of the opinion polls.

Politics latest: ‘Stop messing around’ – Badenoch issues warning to Tory rebels; the pledge ‘haunting’ Labour

Kemi Badenoch confirms sacking of Post Office chair – but says issues ‘go beyond’ Horizon IT scandal

Adam Boulton: Are we in for one of the ‘dirtiest’ election campaigns ever?

Senior allies of the Rishi Sunak are hugely frustrated by the small band of ex-advisers plotting against the prime minister, since it is distracting them from being able to highlight their arguments about Labour.

However, the plotters need to demonstrate they can get MPs on their side to get any momentum.

Number 10 hopes that a packed news agenda this week will help minimise their impact.

Related posts:

David Cameron breaks silence over Greensill lobbying controversy £535 debt ‘owed’ by Boris Johnson removed by county court Minister says no delay to lockdown easing in England on Monday despite spread of Indian variant ‘If she can do it, so can I’: SNP’s newest MP says she wants to be role model for other minorities Extra £82m in funding needed for government to meet pledge to end rough sleeping by 2024 – report Three children and seven women among 27 who died in Channel – as picture of flimsy dinghy emerges There’s one clear winner after PM’s grim week and it’s not Starmer – or the Tory rebels Tory leadership race is already turning out to be ill-tempered, vicious and ugly Sunak’s speech shows cosy UK-China ties since Cameron’s pint with Xi are ‘beer today, gone tomorrow’ Johnson ally dismisses partygate bash as just ‘soggy sandwiches and a slice of birthday cake’ Boris Johnson ‘nominates father for a knighthood’ COVID herd immunity was a ‘clearly ridiculous’ and ‘dangerous’ policy