The Metropolitan Police has just launched a pair of missiles at the two occupants of Downing Street.

All indications from those in government in advance of this moment lead us to believe that the prime minister will almost certainly not be resigning.,

In fact, he may even decide to try and appeal the fine through the court system.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

That may not stop letters of no-confidence going in.

Johnson and Sunak faces calls to resign after fines for lockdown parties revealed – live updates

Although Tory MPs who had in the past been critical of the prime minister have suggested in recent weeks that – given the war in Ukraine – the chances of a no-confidence vote had receded.

“It’s hard to believe the letter threshold will be met, or that he’d be toppled if it was. What a time to be alive”, wrote one critical MP last week.

Boris Johnson, Carrie Johnson and Rishi Sunak to be fined over lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street

Ukraine war: Boris Johnson meets Volodymyr Zelesnkyy in Kyiv to offer more military and financial aid

Energy security strategy: Boris Johnson pledges to ‘do more’ on cost of living crisis as he defends energy strategy

Although messaging after the revelations today, this member added “I can’t wait for the emails to start rolling in”.

The prime minister’s performance on Ukraine during the last two months and his visit to Kyiv just this weekend may also help him fend off challenges.

The fact the chancellor has been fined as well does make Boris Johnson’s position more precarious though.

Sunak’s fine is a genuine surprise

Rishi Sunak had sounded confident in the past that he would not be dragged into the partygate row.

In December last year, he told the House of Commons directly that he “did not attend any parties”.

Speaking to Sky News, he even said he didn’t expect to receive a lockdown questionnaire from the police.

His fine is a genuine surprise.

“It will certainly silence Rishi’s supporters wanting Boris to go. Rishi can’t succeed Boris if he is in the same position as Boris, for which Boris has had to go”, said one former minister.

The chancellor is someone who prides himself on being a stickler for the rules, as shown by his reaction to revelations about his financial affairs in the last week.

There had already been briefing that Mr Sunak was considering throwing in the towel and moving back out to the Californian coast amid a torrid week of stories about his family.

In that context, if anyone is to walk away, it may be him.

That would put huge pressure on Boris Johnson and lead to questions about why he is not resigning when the man in the Treasury is.

Related posts:

Confusion as minister says critical jobs list for isolation exemption is being worked on Sir David Amess’s family visit church where he was murdered How UK plans to reach net zero by 2050 – here are the key details MPs and peers call for review of parliamentary pensions over China investment concerns Labour step up pressure on PM to reveal value of Spanish holiday – as Johnson registers free airport hospitality UK and EU need to ‘knuckle down’ and resolve dispute over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit rules, says Irish premier Foreign secretary warns Russia any Ukraine incursion would be ‘massive strategic mistake’ Military medics drafted into London hospitals as NHS grapples with staff shortages Boris Johnson meets Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv Rishi Sunak and his wife recognise her tax situation was ‘not favourable’, minister says Ukraine visa scheme now ‘motoring’, minister claims – as Labour attacks ‘shameful’ delays Rishi Sunak asks PM to refer him to adviser on ministers’ interests