Safe seat no longer? Tories face nightmare by-election surrounded by accusations of sleaze

Owen Paterson’s dramatic resignation as an MP presents the Conservatives with a nightmare by-election, in which opponents will campaign against “Tory sleaze”.

His decision – after his children “asked me to leave politics altogether” – means the Conservatives are now facing three by-elections this winter in what should be safe seats.

Mr Paterson had a hefty majority of 22,949 in Shropshire North at the last general election, with Labour second and the Liberal Democrats in third place.

It’s a rural constituency on the Welsh border, made up of small market towns and villages. Previously known as Oswestry, it has been Tory since 1906.

When Mr Paterson succeeded the former Tory cabinet minister John Biffen in Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour landslide, his majority was a slender 2,195.

But it has steadily climbed to its now seemingly impregnable margin, nudging 23,000, and in any other circumstances this by-election would be a stroll for the Tories.

These are not normal circumstances, however, and North Shropshire has the potential to be a firecracker of a by-election and the Conservatives will be worried about a colossal upset.

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The other two winter by-elections in safe Tory seats will be entirely different.

Sir David Amess and James Brokenshire were both much-loved MPs and untainted by scandal.

The by-election in Mr Brokenshire’s Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency is due on 2 December and Tory councillor Louie French will be defending a majority of 18,952.

The poll in Sir David’s Southend West seat is likely to be much later because of the ongoing inquiries into his brutal killing. His funeral, at Westminster Cathedral, is not until 23 November.

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Usually, when a popular MP dies, voters don’t punish the MP’s party in the by-election. What they don’t like is apparently unnecessary by-elections where an MP has swanned off to a well-paid job.

The theory about a well-loved MP was spectacularly disproved this summer, of course, when the Liberal Democrats pulled off a shock win in Chesham and Amersham after the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan.

Dame Cheryl’s 16,223 majority was overturned as the Lib Dems won comfortably by 8,028 votes, in a result that sent shock waves through the Tory high command and through the party’s seats in the leafy shires and home counties.

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Could a similar shock happen again in Shropshire North? Certainly. The Tory majority may be higher than in Chesham and Amersham, but throw in the sleaze factor and there’s a potent cocktail of potential for an upset.

The most memorable election dominated by sleaze allegations in recent years was in Tatton in 1997, when former BBC journalist Martin Bell stormed into the affluent North West constituency and defeated the cash-for-questions Tory Neil Hamilton.

On that occasion, however, Labour and the Liberal Democrats stood aside for the anti-sleaze crusader in the white suit. Might Labour and the Lib Dems do a deal in Shropshire North? Possibly.

David Cameron was ruthless in purging the Conservatives of MPs caught up in the 2009 expenses scandal. Dozens of senior Tory MPs were forced to stand down rather than risk defeat because of sleaze allegations.

Boris Johnson, in contrast, praised Mr Paterson after he resigned as a “voice for freedom” and “an early and powerful champion of Brexit”. No word from the PM about the paid advocacy described as “egregious” by an all-party committee of MPs.

So the lack of remorse, not only by Mr Paterson but also by the prime minister and his allies at the highest levels of the Conservative Party, could spell danger for the Tories in the North Shropshire by-election.

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