Rishi Sunak has had a good platform in Bali but the rubber will hit the road when he returns

For Rishi Sunak, the G20 in Indonesia has been a good platform to find voice on foreign policy, and to press the flesh with allies who could be forgiven for being bemused at best, horrified at worst, by the changing of the guard three times at No 10 in four months.

For the first time in their 15 years of meeting face-to-face, these leaders do so in Bali in the shadow of war in Europe which has exposed the divisions between Western allies and other big industrialised nations, namely China and India, when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

And for our prime minister it has given him an opportunity to “call out” Russia’s “barbaric war” and glower at Russia’s foreign minister across the room.

He has used this moment to re-assert a close relationship with the US – he will meet President Biden on Wednesday – as well as repairing what at times were tense moments with European allies, driven by a combative Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss.

But as he represents the UK on the world stage, his chancellor is putting to bed an autumn statement which is going to be a much more difficult prospect to navigate than the diplomacy in Bali.

Thursday is when the rubber hits the road for this prime minister.

It is the moment when the public learn in concrete terms what the fall-out from Liz Truss’s mini-budget and the new PM’s determination to correct the damage will have on their own finances.

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And he needs to prepare for a very bumpy ride indeed.

Because the chancellor is looking at how to plug an estimated £55bn black hole in the public finances through a mix of tax rises and spending cuts.

He has promised to be compassionate and fair in how he metes out the pain – but his chancellor has made it clear that everyone’s taxes will be going up.

And as much as Mr Sunak would like to lay the blame for this economic pain at the feet of the global economy, fault lies too with his own party and the Tory government: £30bn of this black hole was a result of Liz Truss’s ill-fated mini-budget, that pushed thorough £20bn of unfunded tax cuts with another £10bn from higher interest rates and government borrowing costs amid all that market turmoil, according to estimates by the thinktank Resolution Foundation.

And yet, no-one in government has taken responsibility for it.

It resulted in Liz Truss being forced out and Mr Sunak brought in.

But as the Tories changed guard, the public paid the price of this reckless management of the economy and will on Thursday be paying again for the Tories’ choices.

Ms Truss may be gone, but her party remains in power and so the question I had for the prime minister was did he need to apologise to close that chapter and properly move on: Mr Sunak may not have been architect of the turmoil, but he does lead the party that was.

But beyond saying, as he has repeatedly, “mistakes were made”, the new prime minister didn’t seem to want to have an honest conversation with the public about the mess his predecessor made, even though they are living with the consequences – consequences that could become harder by the end of week.

I asked him six times if he wanted – or thought he ought – to apologise to the public for those mistakes. Each time he demurred.

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It tells us that Mr Sunak is still worrying about internal party politics and is perhaps more worried about this in the short term than public reception to him and his autumn statement.

The bristling is already beginning. Twenty-eight MPs have written to Jeremy Hunt imploring him not to cut education spending while Truss backers – such as former cabinet minister Simon Clarke and former leader Iain Duncan Smith – are warning against tax rises.

This is a PM that can ill afford to poke the bear right now.

But at some point, particularly as the recession bites and energy bills rise and mortgage repayments for many homeowners spike, won’t there be a day of reckoning for the Tory party?

And will the PM have to own it, whether he was the architect or not?

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