Putin cornered over Ukraine over invasion 'miscalculation' - how will he react?

Vladimir Putin is becoming increasingly cornered due to his initial plan to make Kyiv fall in two days backfiring. Sky News has spoken to experts about how the Russian President may react next as the war in Ukraine enters day 11.

Air Marshal Philip Osborn, a former chief of defence intelligence and director at Universal Defence and Security Solutions, said: “Putin’s in a corner over the conflict in Ukraine. But that brings with it all kinds of risks as his options are not nearly as clear as they were at the start.

“He really needs to maintain a narrative, which at the moment is to stop NATO expansionism and is all about the security of Russia.

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“Part of the implementation of the no-fly zone gives him that opportunity to underline that narrative at home, to make this about NATO and Russia, not about his miscalculation in Ukraine.

“He just can’t hold that country. I think any nation who thinks it’s going to hold a country of 40 million-plus people who just don’t want you there regardless of the size is killing themselves.

He added Russia may have been “overconfident” about the invasion, but ultimately “underestimated the Ukrainians”.

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Russian forces are ‘not as agile as they thought’

Mr Osborn said: “He spent a lot of money bringing those armed forces up to scratch, but they don’t seem to be doing what he wants. At the heart of military power is these people. It’s have you got the right people with the right morale? The right training and the right skills.

“If you take a step back again, I think what we’re seeing is a hugely overconfident Russian military engaging with the reality of a really high and well-equipped, highly motivated opponent.

“So I think we’ve seen an error of overconfidence as far as they’re concerned. And they have underestimated the Ukrainians.

“That’s led to tactical and operational level failures in terms of logistics, in terms of command and control. But what I think it’s also underlined is that Russia is just not used to doing this type of stuff.

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“And nations like the UK, the US and others train really hard to make to ensure you’ve got that capability, but Russia has not been doing that.

“I mean, what we’re seeing is the Chechnya, the Syria playbook. He was trying to be fast. He was trying to be manipulative of public opinion. Puppet regime, perhaps in two or three days.

“That’s clearly not worked. His forces are proving that they’re not nearly as agile as they thought they were going to be.

“And therefore, what we’re seeing, tragically, is Russia doing what Russia normally does, which is when it’s in a hole it applies, violence, extreme violence, to break civilian morale.”

Fiona Hill, former official at the US National Security Council specialising in Russian and European affairs, suggested Mr Putin may be reluctant to back down as he is worried about regime change.

Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, she said: “One of the reasons he is engaging in appalling behaviour is because he is worried about his own position.

“If he fails and looks weak it looks disastrous at home. He looks at what the US has done in Libra, Iraq and Afghanistan and he doesn’t want that to happen in Russia. He is extremely paranoid about that.

“So we have to be careful about how we talk about regime change in Russia otherwise he will double down further.”

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Putin has to win ‘to save face’

Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador, added the Russian president has given himself “no way out” over the invasion.

He said: “Sadly what he is very clear about now is he wants to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, decapitate the government and control the entire country.

“In fact, I think he has given himself no way out. He launched his military operation on the thought that it might last two or three days and that would be fairly easy as they would take over Ukraine.

“However, this is obviously not true as Russian forces are bogged down in many places. They’ve suffered a lot of casualties, a lot of equipment losses. And now sanctions have kicked in that are truly significant against the Russian economy.

“So he has to win to save face, to save himself, to remain in power, because if he fails in Ukraine and the economy is tanking, I would not be surprised to see people in Russia start to question his leadership.”

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Meanwhile, deputy prime minister Dominic Raab appeared on Sky News’s Trevor Phillips on Sunday, where he said the Russian invasion was “not going according to plan”, before rubbishing Russian reports that Ukraine had been developing a “dirty nuclear bomb”.

He said: “Think it’s about rhetoric and brinkmanship and Putin has got a track record. As long as there was arm of misinformation and propaganda, we saw that through the pandemic.

“And this is a distraction from what the real issues are at hand, which is that it’s an illegal invasion and it is not going according to plan.

“That’s why working with the UN, working with our NATO allies, working with our international partners around the world. China has got a job here. They’ve got to step up as well.

“This is a permanent member of the Security Council, and India as well. So we need to expand the diplomatic pressure, but let’s not get distracted by the propaganda of Putin.”

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace also warned the Kremlin not to underestimate the West.

He said in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph: “The thing to say to Putin is don’t underestimate us, don’t test us.”

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