China has announced how it will meet its target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030, according to a new document published by the country’s cabinet. 

China is the world’s biggest polluter by volume – although the US emits more carbon per capita – and many had been hoping for new, more ambitious targets ahead of COP26, which starts in Glasgow in five days.

The new plan does not make any new pledges but does include fresh details, including building more hydropower and nuclear plants, and increasing its wind and solar capacity to 1,200 gigawatts by the end of the decade.

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But some of the language in the policy, published by the State Council, hints at more modest progress. As well as climate goals, it stresses the importance of “energy security & economic development” as bottom lines for planners.

Previously, China had promised fossil fuels will form less than 20% of its energy mix by 2060, and clean energy will account for 20% by 2025.

China’s leader Xi Jinping is reportedly not attending the climate conference.

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Like other countries, China has struggled with power shortages recently and has ramped up coal production to meet those challenges.

Reducing emissions from coal is also dealt with in a relatively limited way.

China burns more coal – the fossil fuel with the highest emissions – than the rest of the world combined. The document said that China would “rationally” control the growth of coal consumption until 2025, and then only “gradually” reduce it afterwards.

If anyone was hoping for a big statement from the world’s biggest polluter ahead of COP26 – well, bad luck. This is as good as it gets.

There are no new pledges. Those were unlikely after President Xi made his dramatic and welcome declaration last year, that China would peak emissions by 2030 and would be carbon neutral by 2060.

These documents represent the nitty gritty of achieving it. They’re a mixed bag.

In the positive ledger, you can see the work that has gone into turning Xi’s words into reality. They are being embedded are the bureaucratic level, which makes backsliding harder, and they touch pretty much every part of the Chinese economy.

And the first paragraph talks about the “guiding ideology” of the policies. Using “Xi Jinping Thought”, along with other Communist hallmarks, they will “thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s Ecological Civilization Thought.” In other words, this comes from the top and everyone better hop to it.

If Xi does managed to train China’s government on meeting existing pledges, that will be an ambitious achievement in itself.

But some of the details leave a lot to be desired, especially on coal. From the wording, it sounds like China’s coal peak is going to dwindle only slowly, which could be catastrophic for global warming.

Now the documents have been published, perhaps other countries’ leaders can put more pressure on China in Glasgow to take stronger action – especially when it comes to China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC).

But there will probably be no new pledges at COP, especially with Xi likely staying away.

Still, boring details can be just as important as the sweeping promises.

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