Millions of homes are at risk of subsidence in the next fifty years as a result of climate change, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has warned.

New analysis finds that the number of buildings across Britain highly or extremely likely to suffer “shrink-swell” is set to double from 3% in 1990 to 6.5% by 2030.

By 2070, more than four million properties (10% of the national total) risk being highly or extremely likely to face subsidence.

“Shrink-swell” refers to the flux of soil volume when ground moisture levels change. Experts fear the phenomenon will worsen as the UK faces more extreme weather from climate change.

When certain soils absorb a lot of water, it can cause the ground to swell, lifting structure in a process known as heave.

In drier weather soils can harden, causing the ground to shrink and crack and buildings to subside.

Properties in some densely-populated parts of London, particularly in northern and central London boroughs, are most at risk, as are areas of the south east of England with clay-rich soils.

Patrick Gray, BGS Head of digital products, said the organisation was sought to highlight those areas most vulnerable to shrink-swell subsidence due to future climate change, in order to “help communities and property owners to build resilience”.

Shrink-swell can increase insurance premiums, depress house prices and in some cases require engineering works to stabilise the land or the property or replace infrastructure.

Lee Jones, BGS engineering geologist, warned of Britain’s increasingly variable climate.

He said: “Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence and looking to the future, these increases in annual temperatures and variability in rainfall are very likely to continue.

“This is going to be a major factor in the emergence of future shrink-swell activity, which needs careful monitoring, mitigation and potentially costly remediation activity.”

Sky News has launched the first daily prime time news show dedicated to climate change.

The Daily Climate Show is broadcast at 6.30pm and 9.30pm Monday to Friday on Sky News, the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

Hosted by Anna Jones, it follows Sky News correspondents as they investigate how global warming is changing our landscape and how we all live our lives.

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