Here we go again: The House tees up a rule vote, while the Senate charts their own shutdown avoidance path.

Sep 26, 2023

Today is set to be a major test for House Republicans after two weeks of stumbles on spending action. But their chosen path, moving forward on individual spending bills, doesn’t get them closer to averting a government shutdown on Oct. 1.

The House will vote on a rule, a key procedural step, to set up action on its fiscal 2024 Defense, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations, and Agriculture-FDA appropriations bills. Hardliners tanked two rules last week, so McCarthy will need to flip at least some of the five GOP defectors. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is already a “hard no” on the rule. The other defectors — Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Dan Bishop (N.C.) — aren’t yet saying where they will land.

The decision to move forward on individual spending bills at this late date is an effort by McCarthy to keep his promise of passing all 12 spending bills one-by-one. But even if they can get past the rule and bring the spending bills to the floor, it isn’t clear the votes are there for passage. And they have no chance in the Democratically controlled Senate.

(One signal of McCarthy’s eternal optimism? The mockups of a challenge coin with the slogan “never give up.”)

Speaking of the Senate: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer got the ball rolling late last week to move a shell that could host a stopgap spending bill.

That’s Tuesday night’s vote to advance the House’s Federal Aviation Administration bill — a double dip, since the FAA authorizations expire on Oct. 1.

Discussions are still ongoing about what the funding patch will entail, including how long it should go. Staff worked into the night Monday to try and deliver text early this week.

The Senate’s spending solution needs to thread the needle between satisfying conservatives so they don’t hold up a unanimous consent agreement to speed things up and House Republicans who are at war with each other. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has pledged to hold up any bill that has more Ukraine aid, and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is demanding a standalone vote on disaster aid.

That could mean a relatively “clean” funding patch, setting up the scenario House Republicans have been dreading: being force-fed a Senate crafted spending bill.

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.

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