Did nearly 900 people die due to the July heatwave?

A total of 899 more people died in England during three days of the late-July heatwave than usually do at that time of year.

4,821 deaths were recorded between 18 to 20 July, 23% higher than the average for the same dates in the past five non-pandemic years.

The number of deaths over the five-year average is known as “excess deaths”.

On 19 July, the day that the record 40.3C (104.3F) temperature was set in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, there were 441 excess deaths, according to new figures from the ONS.

The total number of deaths recorded on the day, 1,775, was higher than on any day since February 2021, during the peak of the pandemic.

The number of excess deaths recorded is close to an earlier estimate made by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine professor Antonio Gasparrini, that 948 people would have died because of the heatwave.

His figures were based on a model that assessed the risk faced by certain age groups at different temperatures.

However, excess deaths have been high throughout recent months as the health service struggles to cope with an ever-increasing backlog of patients, partly caused by the pandemic. So it’s unclear how many of these 899 additional deaths can be attributed to the heat.

Ambulance services, which had been on their highest alert during the heatwave, recorded some of their slowest ever response times in July as busy A&Es caused queues to build outside hospitals.

COVID deaths

The number of deaths with COVID listed as an underlying cause also rose during the days of the heatwave.

There were 122 COVID deaths on 19 July, more than double the average for the rest of the month (52) and the highest daily total since April.

Who died from the heat?

If we look at where the record temperatures were recorded – largely in the east of England – and which local authorities had the highest number of excess deaths during the week of the heatwave, some of the same areas were affected but it’s far from a clear picture.

From the data that’s currently available, there isn’t an obvious rise in the number of older people who died around the time of the extreme heat, as might have been expected.

The number of excess deaths both in hospitals and at home during the week of the heatwave was among the highest recorded in 2022, while deaths in care homes were comparatively low. But again it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions on the causes without more detailed data.

The ONS said: “Excess deaths during this period could be because of a combination of factors, not just the increase in heat. Further investigation is required to understand this fully, including more deaths being registered.

“Further analysis relating to deaths during heat periods, in collaboration with UKHSA, will be published in due course.”

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