The exchange of fire over Israel’s northern border with Lebanon is some of the most serious yet – but the situation remains fundamentally the same. 

Hezbollah’s Iranian patrons do not want the militia to escalate the conflict to an all-out war.

And its commanders want to avoid one too. Israel may be weighing a bigger war but has not decided to do so yet.

Ever since the Hamas atrocities of 7 October, Hezbollah and Israel have been duelling over the border.

Follow live: Israel launches wave of attacks on Lebanon

Hezbollah feels it must show solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza but not become drawn into a repeat of the devastating conflict of 2006.

It knows the people of Lebanon will not forgive them for any escalation that could wreck the country’s already decimated economy.

Hezbollah was set up with Iran’s encouragement to “resist” Israeli incursions and occupations and draws its ranks from the Shia of southern Lebanon. It is part of a crescent of Shiite militias stretching west from Iran.

Since 2006 its armoury of missiles hidden in the hills of southern Lebanon has increased to 150,000 rockets, according to Israel.

It is widely thought that Iran has paid for much of that to be used only as a last resort.

The arsenal is an insurance policy it is claimed only to be used when Israel or the United States strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

For these reasons, it would take a major escalation to tip Hezbollah into an all-out war. That is not out of the question.

An accidental Israeli airstrike on a southern Lebanese kindergarten killing many children for instance might give Hezbollah commanders little choice but to respond in earnest.

And a deliberate Israeli escalation is also a possibility.

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Since 7 October, Israel has been reevaluating a defence strategy that hitherto had preferred to manage the threat to its enemies rather than eliminate them.

It now favours the latter when it comes to Hamas. And some in the Israeli government have advocated the same against Hezbollah.

Read more:
Children among four people killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon
Analysis: Does Netanyahu have the nerve for a military operation in Rafah?

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Thus far Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unconvinced.

So the uneasy status quo, however kinetic, remains ongoing. This latest exchange seems unlikely to change the equation.

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