The UK population is projected to grow to 73.7 million – including net international migration of 6.1 million – by mid-2036.

The new Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures look at data over a 15-year period from mid-2021 – when the population was estimated to be 67 million.

Over the period it is projected that 10.8 million people will be born, 10.3 million will die, 13.7 million will move to the UK long-term while 7.6 million people will emigrate.

In just over two years, by mid-2026, the population is projected to reach 70 million, with the ONS suggesting it “mainly results from international migration”.

This growth is faster than what was projected this time last year based on figures from 2020.

The number of people aged 85 and over is also set to increase by one million to 2.6 million by 2036.

All the figures are projections, not predictions, because they are based on current and past trends.

The projections in overall population size are based on an assumption that long-term net international migration, currently estimated at 315,000 per year, ends by mid-2028.

The actual levels of future migration and population may be higher or lower, and will be “affected by policy changes as well as the impact of as yet unknown migrant behaviour patterns”, the ONS said.

The projections may also be revised when more data becomes available.

Commenting on the figures, James Robards of the ONS said: “Expert views and the latest data covering the last 10 years has led us to develop a long-term net migration assumption of 315,000 each year from year ending mid-2028 onwards.

“It is important to recognise that there is uncertainty in the provisional international migration estimates.

“Put simply, if migration comes down so will future projections.

“If net international migration were to be, say, 20% higher than our long-term assumption, then it would be 379,000 per year. If it were to be 20% lower than our assumption, then it would be 253,000 per year.

“That is why we call these projections and not forecasts. There is uncertainty and these differences would affect the total size of the population accordingly.”

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The projections come as it was announced that overseas care workers coming to the UK will no longer be allowed to bring dependants from 11 March.

The new measures are aimed at tackling “unsustainable and unfair levels of migration”, according to the government.

The introduction of the ban – announced in December without a timetable – was said to have “blindsided” providers, with some warning they have “grave concerns” the change could drive people from the sector.

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