Today’s trade figures offer an important early sense of how Britain is settling into its new post-Brexit reality.

There will be a tentative dose of relief.

Trade with the EU has recovered significantly from record drop-offs in January, but it’s too early to tell what the long term trends and impact will be.

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It’s only the second time the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported trade figures since the post-Brexit deal came into effect on 1 January.

That deal agreed that there would be no tariffs or quotas on goods traded between the EU and the UK, but businesses now face customs procedures at the border and safety checks on some products.

The first set of figures for the month of January were dire.

Following a year of sustained growth in imports and exports to the EU, both saw the largest drops since record began in 1997.

Exports to the EU fell by £5.7bn (42%) while imports were down £6.6bn, around 30%.

As the government and others were quick to point out there were explanations for this.

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Lots of businesses had turned to stockpiling in November and December, keen to get goods across the border to avoid potential delays as the new systems bedded in.

The pandemic also took a toll.

But still, adjustments to the new trading relationship likely played the key role – many businesses have complained about higher costs and lost customers as new customs checks and procedures kicked in.

The fact February’s figures were much improved will no doubt be welcome, but there’s still a way to go to return to levels seen before the end of the transition period.

Exports were up £3.7bn (46.6%), driven particularly by machinery, transport equipment and chemicals.

Imports improved too but more modestly, up £1.2bn (7.3%).

It’s likely that pre-Brexit stockpiling did indeed play a significant role in such sharp falls in January and it’s also very possible British businesses are still running down these stocks before ordering more goods.

Coronavirus pandemic restrictions will also still be having an impact along with lower demand due to the UK and global economic recession.

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But it is hard at this stage to disentangle these shorter term causes from longer more structural changes as a result of Brexit.

As the Office for National Statistics points out, trade data can also be “erratic”.

There’s no doubt the government will still have its concerns.

Just one day before the January figures were released it announced it would further delay the introduction of import checks to January 2022.

The idea was to give businesses and hauliers more time to adapt.

Further trade recovery will be key to the post Brexit prosperity that has been promised.

If February’s figures can be sustained and built on it will be good news indeed – but it’s not a certainty.

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