Messaging is a key weapon in any government’s armoury.

Back in 2010 the new coalition spent the first few months re-iterating the line that Labour had caused economic chaos, aided by the famous note “there is no money left”.

It was so successful that some political analysis believe it was a big factor in helping David Cameron get re-elected some five year later.

Labour have learnt that lesson, so Sir Keir Starmer‘s message from his first keynote speech as prime minister on Tuesday is fundamentally about expectation management.

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He will warn life in the UK is “going to get worse” before it improves and things are “worse than we ever imagined”.

In contrast to the cheering optimism on the day he entered Downing Street the prime minister will now say: “Part of that is being honest with people – about the choices we face. And how tough this will be. Frankly – things will get worse before we get better.”

Whether things are worse than anyone ever thought before the election is a moot political point.

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In some areas things are clearly very difficult: Prisons, the asylum system and public finances are clearly under enormous strain.

It is sensible for Labour, prudent in fact to point out that any change will take time.

And in theory if the messaging lands well, it should buy them some time and space with voters not to expect immediate improvements.

Starmer will speak of the “rot set deep in the heart of the foundations of our country under previous Tory governments” and Labour will be hoping that they will be the beneficiaries of any, and all improvements.

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Frankly the macro-economic picture in the UK is pretty good. migration figures are beginning to fall, unemployment remains low. The inheritance is not all bad, don’t be surprised if Labour start to claim some of these successes when the election date fades in people’s minds.

Ultimately no government can get away from the reality of people’s lives and the problems people face.

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But if they can manage exceptions, if they can frame narratives, history suggests this tactic can help governments beat their political foes in the future.

So Sir Keir will be hoping that voters take note of his speech not just this week but in the years to come too.

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