If Russia keeps up its attacks on Ukraine, it will likely take five years for its forces to “grind their way” to a minimum goal of fully capturing just four regions at a loss of up to 1.8 million soldiers, dead and wounded, the new head of the British army has said.

General Sir Roly Walker said in a long war “there are no winners. It is an utter devastation for both sides and lost generations”.

Answering questions at a conference in London, the new Chief of the General Staff said that the war in Ukraine was “not going well for anyone”.

But he warned that Vladimir Putin must fail or else a wider security framework that protects the Euro-Atlantic NATO alliance – the true target of his aggression – would be at risk.

“It has just started in Ukraine, so it must fail in Ukraine otherwise where does it go next?” he told an audience of military personnel, industry officials and other defence experts at the Land Warfare Conference in London, held by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank.

The general was responding to a question on his predictions for how he thought Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine would unfold and when it might end.

“If they carry on as they are, it would probably take the Russians five years to grind their way to their minimum objectives of the four oblasts [regions],” General Walker said.

Police officer kicks and stamps on man’s head at Manchester Airport

Video shows British Olympian Charlotte Dujardin whipping horse in training session

‘Millions of people have bought a lie’ over Manchester Arena attack, ex-TV producer tells court

He was referring to the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south. They are all partially under Russian control already following more than two and a half years of fighting and more than half a million casualties.

Setting out the cost of such a goal to Russia, the top commander said: “At the current rate of attrition of dead and wounded, that puts them probably well north of 1.5 million people – casualties – to achieve that with untold billions of [pounds of] lost equipment.”

He continued: “So, the big if is if the Ukrainian armed forces can keep, sustain the defence that they have.”

Read more:
Where does Kamala Harris stand on Ukraine?
Bear rescued from Ukraine dies in Scottish zoo
Zelenskyy asks Starmer to ‘show leadership’ on Ukraine

As for how the conflict was going, General Walker said: “I think the dilemma… is on the Russian regime. There has got to be more things for Russia to worry about than losing the best part of 1.5 to 1.8 million people for a slice of Ukraine with the way the world is going.”

He dismissed an original ambition that Western allies believe President Putin had, which was to capture the whole of Ukraine with just 160,000 troops within six weeks, as a “wizard scheme”.

“That was the quick war theory, which was put paid to by a scratch force with a little bit of help,” he said, referring to the huge volume of weapons and assistance given to the Ukrainian armed forces by more than 50 countries, including the UK.

“So I think in that sense, it’s hard to see how this is going in Russia’s favour. But maybe their calculus is different to ours,” General Walker said.

The comments came as the army chief warned that his soldiers must be ready in three years to fight a war against an “axis of upheaval” of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

He predicted, win or lose, that Russia will emerge from its invasion of Ukraine “very, very dangerous” and “wanting retribution” against countries like the UK that supported Kyiv.

“The point here is when you think they [the Russians] are down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance,” he said.

Related posts:

‘Full speed ahead’ for vaccine rollout – but 18 to 29-year-olds to be offered alternative to Oxford jab ‘Dressed down’ Queen to carry out first major engagement since death of husband Philip Mother and ex-boyfriend jailed for killing girl, three, after her cries interrupted them having sex Jail sentence for Star Hobson’s mother referred to Court of Appeal for being ‘unduly lenient’ Man dies after falling into Thames while being arrested Man pleads not guilty to murdering mother and three children in Killamarsh Met Police failed to kick out officer despite nine incidents reported in two decades Camilla to wear ‘sustainable’ coronation crown – without its controversial diamond British expat accused of wife’s murder tells court she ‘begged him’ to help her die Manchester United winger Antony put on leave of absence after assault claims by three women Man charged with firearm possession and attempted robbery after Liverpool shooting spree Greta Thunberg cleared of public order offence – as judge calls protesting conditions ‘unlawful’