North Korea is poised to reopen its borders amid fears its fragile economy is on the brink of collapse following a strict two-year lockdown.
Pyongyang has shown signs it will finally ease tough restrictions as it resumed freight train traffic into neighbouring China last week.
Trade between the two nations – crucial to North Korea – is said to have slumped by 80% in 2020.
And it plunged again by two-thirds between January and September last year after North Korea sealed off its borders, according to South Korean estimates.
The tentative reopening comes after North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, in what is said to be the sixth missile test conducted this month.
Analysts have dismissed the launches as a “cry for attention” by supreme leader Kim Jong-un.
But Pyongyang is “running hard in what it perceives to be an arms race with Seoul”, said international affairs professor, Leif-Eric Easley, based at Ewha University in the South Korean capital.
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“The (Kim Jong Un) regime is developing an impressive diversity of offensive weapons despite limited resources and serious economic challenges,” Mr Easley added.
The US has condemned the launch – said not to pose an immediate threat – as it vowed to remain committed to a diplomatic approach and urged North Korea to engage in dialogue.
The first North Korean freight train is thought to have crossed the Yalu River before returning to unload cargo at an airfield in the border town of Uiju.
The airfield is said to have been converted to disinfect imported supplies, believed to include medicine and food.
China’s foreign ministry said trade would be maintained across the border while pandemic controls remain.
But South Korean officials say it is unclear whether the North will fully reopen land trade with China.
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And experts believe trading will be significantly smaller than pre-pandemic levels.
Partially reopening its border after a prolonged period means North Korea now faces the question of how to acquire and administer vaccines.
It is the only country in the world “without a real plan”, according to Seoul’s Institute of National Security Strategy, a think tank run by South Korea’s main spy agency.
“North Korea could end up being the planet’s last battlefield in the war against COVID-19,” analyst Lim Soo-ho said.
The nation insists it has had zero virus infections.
But it responded to the pandemic by restricting cross-border traffic and trade, banning tourists and banishing diplomats – amid reports troops were ordered to shoot trespassers on sight.
Kim Jung-un acknowledged his previous vision for the economy was not working in 2020 and issued a new development for the following five years.
However a review in December last year indicated the plan had yielded “disappointing” results.