Middle East on a knife edge on eve of Gaza ceasefire talks

On the eve of crucial Gaza ceasefire talks, Iran has dramatically upped the ante.

For two weeks Israel has faced a nerve-wracking wait for Iranian retaliation for the assassinations of two Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Tehran and Beirut.

Now Iranian officials say Iran will attack Israel directly if Gaza ceasefire talks, scheduled tomorrow in Qatar, fail to reach an agreement.

The development is double-edged for Israelis.

On the one hand, it means they might escape being attacked if both sides make sufficient concessions in the talks in Doha to strike a deal.

On the other, Iran’s move will be seen by many as holding a gun to the head of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the middle of fragile negotiations.

Giving into such pressure might look weak. That might make the move counterproductive.

Either way, it makes the talks in Qatar even more consequential.

The prospects of success, however, appear to be fading.

Hamas’ senior official in Lebanon says it will not be sending a delegation as things currently stand. Dr Ahmad Abdul Hadi told Sky News that Israel is “setting new conditions and committed the Tabi’in School massacre and are still committing massacres”.

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Israel is in turn accusing Hamas of intransigence. Much of this will be posturing ahead of talks but the signs are not encouraging.

There are reportedly several sticking points.

Hamas wants Palestinian men to be allowed to return to their homes in the north of Gaza and Israel wants them screened for weapons en route.

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Hamas accuses Israel of adding that demand at the eleventh hour, but Israel refutes that.

Hamas wants the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Netzarim corridor, the strip of land that splits Gaza in two. And there are disputes over the Philadelphi corridor that runs the length of Gaza’s border with Egypt.

There is clearly frustration within the Israeli government and security establishment at the highest levels of Mr Netanyahu’s handling of the negotiations.

Extraordinarily, members of his own negotiating team briefed the New York Times this week, passing on documents that show he has added new conditions they fear create obstacles to an agreement.

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Critics say Mr Netanyahu is obstructing progress knowing a deal might scupper his fragile coalition with far-right extremist parties in government.

Progress is also threatened by the antics of those coalition partners this week in the most sensitive piece of real estate in the conflict.

Itamar Ben-Gvir is an extremist with a string of convictions for anti-Arab racist incitement and membership of terrorist organisations.

He is also the country’s national security minister, controlling the police.

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His conduct taking fellow far-right Jewish activists onto the Temple Mount or Noble Sanctuary compound in the old city of Jerusalem this week was provocative and threatened the status quo agreements governing the site.

His own government had to publicly condemn him.

So the signs are not encouraging on the eve of talks in Qatar, which is often the way in this region.

They are overshadowed by events, lack of trust and questionable motives among the players even if there is a huge diplomatic push underway from Americans, Europeans and regional powers to encourage success.

If they fail there is now a double jeopardy. Continuing carnage in Gaza and twin attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.

The region is on a knife edge, suspended between a potential ceasefire and massively escalating conflict.

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