Every day, it seems, there is fresh evidence of a take-off in inflation – whether it is soaring petrol prices, higher building materials prices or rising paper and packaging costs.
Today, though, brought one of the starkest warnings yet.
Unilever, one of the world’s biggest producers of food, drink, beauty products and consumer goods, made no fewer than eight separate references to inflation in its half year results statement today as it spelled out the consequences of higher input costs.
Alan Jope, Unilever’s chief executive, said: “We have seen further cost inflation emerge through the second quarter (from April to June)…we are managing this dynamically.”
In other words, consumers should brace themselves for price increases from a company whose brands range from Ben & Jerrys, Wall’s and Magnum ice cream to Colman’s mustard, PG Tips tea, Marmite spread, Dove soap, Lynx deodorant and Comfort fabric conditioner.
Those price increases, in fact, are already coming through.
Mr Jope told analysts this morning that, in June, average pricing increased by 2%.
Some of the details of the input cost increases are startling.
Graeme Pitkethly, Unilever’s chief financial officer, reminded analysts that, at the company’s last trading update in April he had warned that commodity price increases of between 10-15% during the second half of the year could be expected.
Since then, he said, Unilever had seen further price increases as a result of higher crude oil, packaging and, especially, freight and distribution costs.
He noted that, since April, the price of crude oil had risen by 14% and was currently up 60% on a year-on-year basis.
Mr Pitkethly added: “Similar to crude, soybean oil has been accelerating inflation.
“It’s an important ingredient for us in categories such as dressings.
“Soybean oil prices have increased by a further 20% just in the last quarter and are now up 80% versus last year.
“The increase is driven by increased demand, coupled with a poor US soy crop in 2020.
“The price of palm oil, a key ingredient for our skin cleansing products, is now 70% higher than the long term average with increased demand and lower harvest yields driving up the price.”
Mr Pitkethly said Unilever had already taken “significant pricing action” in key markets but was having to keep affordability for consumers in mind at a time when much of the world was suffering from difficult economic circumstances.
He said the company was now raising its forecast for expected input cost inflation for the second half of the year to between 15-19%.
“We have been and will continue to pull all of the levers of pricing and saving,” Mr Pitkethly added.
The warning took the shine off news that Unilever’s grew underlying sales during the April to June quarter by a better-than-expected 5% and shares of the company – the second-largest in the FTSE 100 – fell by 5% at one point.
Alicia Forry, analyst at investment bank Investec, said: “This is slightly disappointing, as they had been confident of passing through cost inflation at the first quarter stage.
“Now they change their tune.
“This margin issue will overshadow the strong underlying performance in the first half of the year.”
Overall, Unilever reported a 3.5% drop in half year pre-tax profits to €4.4bn as sales rose by three-tenths of 1% to €25.8bn.
Mr Jope highlighted a particularly strong performance from the Knorr and Hellmanns brands.
Ice cream sales were also buoyant, both for at-home and out-of-home consumption, with Mr Jope citing sales growth of more than 10% in Turkey, China and India.
He said this was helped by new product launches and promotions, including Miley in Layers, a campaign for Magnum with the singer Miley Cyrus.
Among other developments, Mr Jope confirmed that the separation of Unilever’s tea business, which apart from PG Tips also includes Lipton, was “substantially complete” of what is expected to be either a sale or a stock market flotation.
Mr Jope also believes long-term trends will come to the aid of the company.
He expects that the trend for cooking at home, which was established during the pandemic, will continue while sales of some personal care products that fell during lockdowns, as customers stayed at home, will start to pick up as socialising resumes.
Mr Jope said Unilever was already seeing a recovery in sales of some skincare, haircare and some deodorant brands.
As an example Vaseline and Ponds, the two skincare products, both grew sales by more than 10%.
The Dirt Is Good advertising campaign for Persil washing powder also continues to drive sales.
All of these positive developments, though, are currently overshadowed by the nagging question of how easily Unilever can pass on the cost increases it is suffering.
Mr Pitkethly spoke today of the “eternal triangle of competitiveness, of inflation and pricing and the timing of landing price [increases] to offset inflation”.
The company can also take comfort from the fact that it is not alone.
All of the other major global consumer goods companies, including the likes of Nestle and Procter & Gamble, are likely to be experiencing similar difficulties.
To that end, it was significant that Mr Jope stressed today Unilever was merely trying to pass on cost increases where it could.
He said that, where Unilever enjoyed market-leading positions, it would expect to be among the first players in that particular market to put up its prices.
But he insisted: “We do think at the end of the day, when the dust settles, our relative pricing will not have changed.
“It is not our expectation or our intent that we will shift our relative pricing.”
In the meantime, the company has another problem in the form of Ben & Jerry’s, the ice cream brand.
When Unilever bought the business 21 years ago, it signed an unusual deal with its founders, Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield, that created an independent board to retain control over the brand’s social mission, giving the board control over where the product is sold.
The board has just decreed that the brand will not be sold in the occupied Palestinian territories, sparking fury in Israel, whose new Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, warned Unilever of “severe consequences”.
Mr Jope, who has spoken with Mr Bennett on the phone to discuss the matter, agreed today that it was a “complex and sensitive matter”.
But he stressed to analysts: “If there is one message I want to underscore in this call, it’s that Unilever remains fully committed to our business in Israel.”
However, as Unilever grapples with higher inflation, the Ben & Jerry’s issue is a headache the company could do without.