Prostate cancer cases are set to double by 2040, according to researchers who have called on authorities to “take action now” as the rise is “inevitable”.

The study by the Lancet Commission on prostate cancer suggests that deaths are expected to double from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040 as life expectancy improves, increasing men’s chances of being diagnosed with the disease.

Annual deaths are projected to go up by 85% to almost 700,000 over the same timeframe, mainly among men in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

In the UK, prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer deaths in men. It is also the most common form of male cancer in more than half of the world’s countries.

As the main risk factors, such as being aged 50 or older and having a family history of the disease, cannot be prevented, the research advocates for early-detection programmes for those at high risk.

It also highlights the urgent need to raise awareness of the disease, which accounts for 15% of all male cancers.

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More research involving men of different ethnicities, especially those of West African descent, is also needed, the researchers say.

Nick James, lead author of the commission and a professor at the Institute of Cancer Research in London, said: “As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases.

“We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now.

“Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programmes, will help to save lives and prevent ill health from prostate cancer in the years to come.

“This is especially true for low- and middle-income countries which will bear the overwhelming brunt of future cases.”

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What does the research say about current testing approaches?

In high-income countries (HICs), screening for prostate cancer often involves the PSA test, a blood test that measures levels of a protein called prostate-specific antigen (PSA).

The current approach to prostate cancer diagnosis in the UK and many other HICs relies on “informed choice” PSA testing, meaning men aged 50 or over with no symptoms can request the test from their doctor after a discussion of the risks and benefits.

According to the commission, such an approach could lead to over-testing in low-risk older men but does not increase detection of prostate cancer in younger men at higher risk.

Instead, the authors recommend using MRI scans in combination with PSA testing to screen men at high risk of prostate cancer.

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