Some countries could face humanitarian disasters if Russia and Ukraine stop wheat exports, according to an OECD report on the economic impact of the war.
The assessment said a complete cessation would risk a “sharp increase in poverty and hunger”.
Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of all global wheat exports and in many countries in the Middle East, those two nations represent around three-quarters of total wheat imports, the OECD said.
Its assessment said that the two countries represent a “relatively small” 2% of global GDP
But it said their importance in exports of food items, minerals and energy meant that the conflict had already resulted in “sizeable economic and financial shocks” with prices of oil, gas and wheat soaring.
The OECD said that the sharp movements in financial markets and commodity prices seen since the start of the war could, if sustained, knock one percentage point off global economic growth and add 2.5 percentage points to inflation.
It added that a “complete cessation” of Ukraine and Russia’s wheat exports “would result in serious shortages in many emerging-market and developing economies”.
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“There would be an acute risk not only of economic crises in some countries but also humanitarian disasters, with a sharp increase in poverty and hunger.”
The countries’ gas supply is also an important impact into fertiliser production and disruption to this also risked putting coming years’ agricultural output under stress, the report said.