Grim budget on the horizon with tax rises and spending cuts likely

You remember that “dire economic inheritance” the new government keeps talking about?

Earlier in the summer Rachel Reeves produced a document suggesting the state of Britain’s economy and public finances was so dismal – so much worse than expected – that she would be forced into introducing significant measures (which read: lots more tax rises) in this autumn’s budget.

The only thing is, much of the economic news since then has been, well, not dire in the slightest. Inflation is still low – so much so that earlier this month the Bank of England cut interest rates.

More compellingly, the latest estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity – show that far from being in recession, the UK is growing at a decent whack.

Indeed, having been the second-slowest growing economy in the group of seven leading industrialised nations in 2023, Britain is, at least over the first six months of 2024, the fastest growing member of the G7.

So a lot of people have been scratching their chins and wondering whether the new government might be overstating it a bit.

Might they just be making a political point, aimed at their predecessors in government?

Well, this morning we had the latest public finances numbers and here the picture is considerably closer to the Reeves version than those other bits of data.

The key thing here is to look beneath the overall borrowing figures. There you see a couple of key bits of information.

First, despite the fact that the economy is growing faster than expected, it’s not resulting in a big windfall of tax revenues (as often happens).

Instead, according to the Office for National Statistics figures, revenues are basically in line with where the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expected them to be around now.

The OBR forecast back in March that by now (or rather, by July – the figures we got today) the government would have collected around £327bn in tax revenues. Instead it has collected only £326bn – a little bit less. So no big windfall.

But now look at the amount it’s spending, and the story is slightly more stark. The OBR thought the government would have spent around £396bn by this point in the year.

Instead, it’s already spent £405bn.

So it’s making less than expected and spending more than expected. And that overspend might not sound much, at £9bn.

But consider that £9bn happens to be precisely the amount of “headroom” the government has before it breaks its fiscal rules and you see the issue.

And this, bear in mind, is only the data for the first four months of the fiscal year. If these trends continue, the gap could get bigger still.

So on the face of it, today’s public finance numbers provide a clear rationale for the course of action the chancellor has (according to those I talk to in Whitehall) already decided upon: more taxes and more spending cuts in this October’s budget.

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It will, I’m told, be pretty grim.

However, it’s worth saying there is one other way for the chancellor to create extra headroom against her fiscal rules, which is to change the particular measure she’s judging that headroom against.

A lot of economists believe the net debt statistic she inherited from the Conservatives is the wrong one to use in her fiscal rules – and that she should use the country’s total national debt, not excluding any debt owned by the Bank of England.

Long story short, if she uses this other measure (and I’m told this is something she is considering) then she suddenly has a lot more headroom.

Even so, don’t expect her to change the tune at the budget in October. There will be more bad news to come.

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