Electric vehicles could cut imports for petrol and diesel as much as granting new North Sea licences for UK oil production would, according to new analysis.

There are already about one million electric cars on British roads, expected to rise to 6.3 million by 2030, according to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) of government data.

Those 6.3 million electric cars in 2030 would have the same effect on cutting fossil fuel imports to power cars as new oil licences would, ECIU said.

Beyond 2030, the impact of electric vehicles would begin to exceed that of new oil licences, the research suggested.

It was published as the government’s Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill is this afternoon due to be debated by MPs, prompting a small protest outside parliament.

If passed, the legislation would compel the North Sea regulator (NSTA) to invite applications for new projects each year, instead of when it deems it appropriate.

Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, head of analysis at ECIU, said: “The licensing debate only distracts from a more permanent solution to securing the UK’s energy independence which means building out British renewables more quickly to power homes and EVs as well as cutting energy waste by insulating roofs.

“The government’s recent track record on some of these policy areas is less than stellar.”

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The NSTA has called the bill unnecessary, and there have been licensing rounds almost every year during the last decade.

But ministers argue that the country still relies on oil and gas for “most of our energy needs”, and boosting domestic supply reduces the need for foreign imports.

About 80% of all the oil from the North Sea is sold abroad, and the government has said it is “not desirable” to oblige companies to allocate oil for the UK.

However, the UK exports most oil to Europe, where it is refined into products that are then used in the UK.

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Starting this month, the government’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandate requires carmakers to sell an increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs), intended to speed up the switch away from petrol and diesel engines.

Dr Cran-McGreehin said: “The government’s electric vehicle mandate policy is, in effect, an energy security policy weaning us off foreign oil imports as the North Sea’s output inevitably declines.”

But Mike Tholen, sustainability and policy director for industry group Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), said the government should boost “homegrown energy production”, including from oil and gas.

“Energy is something we can produce here more cheaply and cleanly and with economic benefits that will protect jobs,” he said.

The UK’s government’s former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, now chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, said he was “shocked” the government is pursuing new licences.

“This is a total reversal of the British government’s commitment to reduce its emissions dramatically and do what is necessary for the world,” he said.

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A spokesperson for the Energy Security and Net Zero department said: “We still rely on oil and gas for most of our energy needs and backing domestic supply bolsters energy security by reducing the reliance on foreign imports, supporting 200,000 jobs and bringing in tens of billions of tax which we can invest in helping people with cost of living.

“At the same time we are powering our transition to more renewables and low carbon alternatives with an expected £100 billion investment by 2030 in technologies such as offshore wind, solar and carbon capture.”

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