Western leaders have showered Joe Biden with praise for his efforts to bolster democracies against the rise of authoritarian powers after he bowed out of the US presidential race.

But there will doubtless be anxiety behind closed doors at how his flip-flopping over whether or not to run again for the White House may have made the chance of a Donald Trump victory – and all that will mean for the future direction of US foreign policy – even more likely.

At the same time, America’s allies will be feeling a sense of relief that weeks of increasingly uncomfortable scrutiny of 81-year-old Mr Biden and his ability to serve another four years as leader of the world’s most powerful nation is over.

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The drama, which is dominating US domestic politics, had also started to overshadow major world events, including a NATO summit in Washington earlier this month, where the most memorable moment was when Mr Biden mistakenly introduced Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin, his arch nemesis.

The focus in foreign ministries around the world will now shift to who is going to replace Mr Biden on the Democrat ticket, though whoever does take on this role will unlikely herald any significant shift on the Biden approach to international affairs.

This includes the front-runner, Kamala Harris, his vice president.

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On Russia’s war in Ukraine, she has strongly endorsed the president’s stance on the need to arm the Ukrainian military to push back Russia’s invaders.

Ms Harris has played a prominent role in articulating the US position on the world stage, such as speaking as the most senior US voice at an annual security conference in Munich.

As for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, Ms Harris has gone further than the president in calling for a ceasefire and expressing horror over the Palestinian civilian death toll, but the US – led by the Biden-Harris administration – has retained military support to Israel, despite growing global outrage at its conduct of the war.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, is due to travel to Washington on Monday to meet with the outgoing president, who has been a staunch supporter of Israel throughout his decades of public service, including as vice president when Barack Obama was in power.

“This will be an opportunity to thank him for the things he did for Israel in the war and during his long and distinguished career in public service, as senator, as vice president, and as president,” Mr Netanyahu said.

“It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the critical months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries… In this time of war and uncertainty, it’s important that Israel’s enemies know that America and Israel stand together today, tomorrow, and always.”

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Mr Biden – unlike Ms Harris or any of the other potential candidates who might seek to compete with her for the Democrat nomination – has a keen interest in foreign affairs and has forged long-standing relationships with leaders around the world.

It is a depth of knowledge – and an appreciation of the Western world order that grew from the ashes of World War Two – that whoever succeeds him will struggle to match. This is something that allies will likely miss.

A defining foreign policy feature of the Biden White House has been his determination to restore ties between the United States and its closest partners – in particular the NATO alliance – that were badly strained during Mr Trump’s previous four years in power.

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“America is back” was a slogan that Mr Biden often used during his first months in office, making clear that working with Western allies against authoritarian states such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea was a top priority.
This attitude would likely stay the same under Ms Harris.

The big change – which will have a far more significant impact on the rest of the world – is not who the Democrats choose to run for president now that Mr Biden is out, but – if they lose – what an incoming Trump presidency will mean for America’s friends and its foes.

The confusion of the past few weeks and ongoing uncertainty among Democrats will have surely fuelled a sense of inevitability in capitals around the world that officials and politicians should step up preparations for a second Trump era.

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