Boris Johnson is going, and that means the contest is on to find a new leader of the Conservative Party.
The convention is that the outgoing leader stays on while that contest is held, as Theresa May did in 2019 and David Cameron did in 2016; with a contest typically taking a couple of months.
The country cannot be without a prime minister, and the Conservative Party’s process is to have successive rounds of voting by MPs once all the prospective candidates have put themselves forward; and then the final two put forward to the membership.
Boris Johnson told the chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady this morning that he would stay on until October while this plays out, but there is now a growing clamour from Conservative MPs for him to go now – and another leader, such as the current deputy prime minister Dominic Raab, to step in and oversee the process.
This would be unprecedented in modern times, but comes out of the fact that Boris Johnson has been brought down – two-and-a-half years after winning a landslide victory – not by any policy, as his predecessors were brought down by Brexit, but by his own character and judgement.
Tweets from Conservatives are coming thick and fast to say they wouldn’t stand for him staying on.
Chris Loder, a 2019 MP for West Dorset, says: “I’m afraid, that Boris Johnson cannot stay on until the autumn. Government cannot function without ministers in place and I expect the deputy prime minister to take over imminently whilst a leadership election takes place.”
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George Freeman, a former science minister added: “Now PM has finally done the decent thing he needs to hand in the seals of office, apologise to Her Majesty, allow her to appoint a caretaker under whom ministers can serve, so the Conservative Party can choose a new leader properly.”
As the Institute for Government point out, there is no provision in the UK for an “interim leader” or “caretaker” during a leadership contest.
If Boris Johnson stayed on, he would have all the functions of prime minister. If Dominic Raab were to take on the role, which he did while the prime minister was in hospital with COVID back in 2020, he would need to be asked by the Queen to head the government and have all the trappings.
If he were to do this, Conservatives would likely expect him to rule out a run for the leadership himself, to remain above the fray – something he has now done.
Calls for Boris Johnson to go now are coming from across the party, privately and publicly. Labour are threatening a no confidence vote if the PM “clings on”. After a uniquely turbulent few days, Boris Johnson’s last stand will be to fend off the swiftest of exits.