Downing Street braced for PM and his inner circle to be among those fined over partygate

Partygate is back, having receded from view for a few weeks while the Ukraine war shifted the political dynamics.

The Met Police has recommended 20 fines for COVID lockdown breaches be issued by ACRO, the criminal records office.

The force says it will not be revealing the identities of the individuals concerned, as is the approach when it comes to cautions, speeding fines or other fixed penalties.

However, Downing Street has previously said it will make it known if the prime minister is among those who receive a fine.

So what happens now?

Whitehall sources expect the fixed penalties to be issued “in the normal way” via a letter, with payment required within 28 days. It is not clear when those letters will be sent out.

It is worth remembering, the issuing of a fine does not amount to a criminal conviction. But it could result in a court summons and criminal prosecution if the fine is not paid.

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Will these first fines relate to ‘open-and-shut cases’ of officials who had not contested they attended rule-breaking gatherings? Some in Whitehall suspect so, but nobody knows for sure apart from the police, who have revealed nothing yet.

Number 10 is braced for the prime minister and his inner circle to be among them. After all, he was one of the first to be sent a legally binding questionnaire on 11 February. Some others contacted by the investigation only received a questionnaire last week.

Some of those contacted are understood to be fighting their corner, while other former senior officials have apologised for their involvement – such as former head of the COVID taskforce Kate Josephs, now chief executive of Sheffield City Council, who said she was “truly sorry” for attending leaving drinks.

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Allies of the prime minister – who repeatedly denied any parties took place – have suggested he will argue that his home and workplace were one and the same.

So what does this mean for Boris Johnson? The controversy plunged him into the most profound political crisis of his premiership. Some 14 Conservative MPs called for his resignation publicly, and many others expressed strong reservations in private.

But the Ukraine war appears to have sucked the energy from the scandal. Some in government believe the lifting of COVID restrictions nationally has taken the heat out of it.

Despite that, a prime minister even being investigated by the police is serious, being given a questionnaire equivalent to an interview under caution is unprecedented.

If he is found to have broken COVID regulations, questions about his leadership are bound to return. Even the heavily edited report by senior civil servant Sue Gray blasted “failures of leadership and judgement” in Downing Street.

The fines issued today mark another significant step in the story, but it is still unclear how it plays out and over what timescale.

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