The Tory plan is working – at least that’s the claim we can expect to hear from Conservative voices today after small boat crossings fell by 29%. 

“Stop the boats” was one of the political hills former prime minister Rishi Sunak died on.

It was a promise impossible to keep before a general election, and thus a stick inevitably used to beat him with.

And the annual reduction of these crossings will do nothing to assuage Mr Sunak’s feelings of regret for having not called an autumn election instead.

But what does this data tell us about the state of the UK asylum system?

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In freshly released numbers from the Home Office, we learn that 99% of those coming to the UK on small boats apply for asylum. However, 96% of those claims are still undecided.

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This is somewhere where Labour will try to attack the previous government.

Labour have long criticised the ballooning asylum backlog, pledging to speed up the processing of claims in order to either remove people with no legal right to remain, or allow people to get on with their lives – to remain, work and contribute to society.

But these figures nonetheless arguably point to Mr Sunak’s policies taking effect.

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Enforced returns are up by 48%, 87% of which are Albanians forced to return due to a deal the Conservative government struck with the country.

And not only are small boat crossings down from last year, but so are work visas, student visas, and visas for dependents of students coming to the UK – something the last prime minister was very vocal about wanting to reduce.

With a Bank of England interest rate cut, economic growth and a reduction in small boat crossings, Mr Sunak will lament the fact it appears Sir Keir Starmer is reaping the rewards of his hard work.

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