England’s R number has fallen slightly to between 0.8 and 1, latest figures show.

This means that on average, every 10 people infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to between eight and 10 other people.

Last week, the figure was estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.1 by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

The daily growth rate of COVID-19 infections is also estimated at between -3% and 0%, compared to -4% and -1% a week earlier – meaning the number of cases is now shrinking by up to 3% every day.

R represents the average number of people a person with the virus goes on to infect. When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially – but it is shrinking if it is below 1.

SAGE scientists say R estimates now span 1 for England and some NHS England regions, as seen below.

This does not necessarily mean R is definitively above 1 and that the epidemic is increasing, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out.

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