Allies of Rishi Sunak say they believe the Tories are likely to lose both by-elections in two weeks time, as they continue to face down plotters trying to bring down the prime minister.

Defeat in both by-elections on Thursday 15 February is likely to unnerve Tory MPs and restore momentum to Tory plotters trying to unseat the prime minister.

The plotters have pinpointed this moment as a key juncture in their calendar.

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The Tories are trying to hold on to a 18,450 majority in Wellingborough in the East Midlands and Kingswood in Bristol, with an 11,220 majority after the departures of Peter Bone and Chris Skidmore respectively.

Labour believes they have more chance in Kingswood than Wellingborough, given the relative scale of the majorities.

However, the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast reveals senior Tories are now telling people they have not been able to plough huge resources into either seat since both are abolished in the boundary changes ahead of the next election. This means they are likely to lose both, given the current state of the opinion polls.

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Senior allies of the Rishi Sunak are hugely frustrated by the small band of ex-advisers plotting against the prime minister, since it is distracting them from being able to highlight their arguments about Labour.

However, the plotters need to demonstrate they can get MPs on their side to get any momentum.

Number 10 hopes that a packed news agenda this week will help minimise their impact.

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