Conservative rebels are meeting later to decide how they will vote on Rishi Sunak’s Safety of Rwanda bill.
The prime minister met with some of those threatening to shoot down the totemic legislation for breakfast in Downing Street on Tuesday morning.
Mr Sunak was hoping to convince the group – including the likes of Jonathan Gullis, Lee Anderson and Miriam Cates – to vote for his legislation this evening.
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This is not the final vote, but rather the first in the process of the bill’s route to becoming a law.
The proposed legislation is intended to address the Supreme Court’s concerns about the plan to send some asylum seekers who cross the English Channel to Rwanda rather than allowing them to attempt to stay in the UK.
Mr Sunak wants to use the legislation – which forms a treaty with Rwanda – to declare the central African nation safe.
He is also seeking to use it to force judges to ignore rulings from the European Court of Human Rights to stop flights leaving – although it will still allow individual appeals.
Many factions on the right of the party – such as the European Research Group and the New Conservatives – think the proposal does not go far enough.
They are set to gather at around 5pm to choose whether to vote against or abstain.
Around 29 MPs need to vote against Mr Sunak for his bill to fail – while 57 abstentions would similarly see the opposition win.
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A Conservative Party source told Sky News that MPs were offered the chance to amend the law – but as long as it stays within the framework of the legislation.
A Downing Street source said: “The bill has been drafted with close attention to detail, with colleagues’ input helping to shape the legislation.
“The tests set for the bill have been met, and we will continue to listen to and engage with colleagues across the party as it passes through parliament. This bill will work and will do what we need it to do.”
The bill is also set to be debated in a committee of the whole house – meaning more MPs will have a chance to table changes than normal.
It is not clear how any amendments would be able to substantially change the proposal without leaving its current framework.
One MP who was at the breakfast said the prime minister told the group he would listen to ideas for “tightening” the bill but gave no specific commitments.
“I would love to know what he means by ‘tightening’ the bill,” they said.
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There would be further complications from the fact that the One Nation caucus of around 100 Tory MPs have said they would not support the bill if it became more hardline.
The group’s chair, Damian Green, said last night that they “strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in any way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle”.
Mr Sunak will be meeting with them this afternoon in a bid to keep them on side.
Rwanda has also told the UK government it will withdraw from the treaty if the UK were to breach its “international obligations”.
Some Tory MPs on the right – like former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke – have called for Downing Street to pull the legislation to rework it.
But Number 10 have said the act will continue in its current form.
It appears the rebels are now figuring out how to proceed with the vote – which could be as early as 7pm.
One told Sky’s Political Editor Beth Rigby that the current act with no amendments would be a “straight choice between abstaining and voting against”.
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Another said that Mr Sunak sought to blame Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick for past failures – which apparently did not go down well.
Labour leader Sir Keir Stamer said today that he expects the government will win tonight’s vote – but if it fails Mr Sunak should call an election.